On Thursday, Turkey lifted its veto over Finland and Sweden’s applications to join NATO. The two countries had both previously refused to join NATO after Turkey accused both countries of hosting PKK militants. Sweden has denied the accusations. However, both countries say that the allegations against them are unfounded. Sweden says the PKK has no role in the decision. Nonetheless, Turkey has taken an important step toward achieving peace in the region.
Turkey’s veto on joining NATO
Turkey is lifting its veto on Finland and Sweden joining NATO, following a long and contentious debate over the issue. The Nordic countries applied to join NATO in May, but Erdogan, who has long been critical of NATO, argued that the two nations were “promoters of terrorism”. Finland is home to the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), which Turkey has long disputed, and Sweden is home to followers of cleric Fethullah Gulen, a former Erdogan ally.
Despite the long, protracted process, Erdogan’s announcement of the decision to lift the veto was welcomed by the countries. Sweden and Finland will now be invited to join NATO, but must first go through a ratification process. This can take up to a year to complete. Nevertheless, it is a significant development in NATO’s process, since the decision must be ratified by the national parliaments of the three countries involved.
Despite the veto lifting process, the three countries said that they will step up their counter-terrorism cooperation. Finland and Sweden will fully support Turkey in the fight against terrorism. Finland has long been a strong ally of Turkey and the Kurdish Workers’ party has long been a source of friction in the region. Adding two Baltic countries to the alliance will enhance the security situation and cooperation in the region.
In the days before the summit, American officials played down the role of Vice President Biden in the negotiations. They said the Vice President would not act as a broker in the process, and that the two countries must resolve their differences on their own. A senior administration official conceded that it was diplomatic to minimize Biden’s involvement, as he does not want Turkey to press for concessions from the United States. This could have complicated the talks further.
After the Turkish veto on Sweden and Finland’s accession to NATO has been lifted, NATO leaders will formally extend an invitation to those two countries to join. The next step in the process is for each country’s parliaments to ratify the decision. The process could take up to a year. If all goes well, the United States will likely join NATO soon. So, while it is still unclear what will happen next, there are some promising signs.
Support for Kurdish groups
A trio of Nordic countries has agreed to lift their vetoes on Turkey’s membership in NATO. Sweden and Finland have a long history of cooperation with the Alliance and have agreed to participate in NATO fast-track talks in May. The decision to lift Turkey’s veto on the proposal comes after Russia invaded Ukraine, which has caused a shift in public opinion in northern Europe. Finland and Sweden officially applied for membership in mid-May, while Turkey’s leadership has cited the arms embargo and support for Kurdish groups as reasons for rejecting its membership.
In return, both countries have committed to crack down on PKK activities and to a non-aligned stance toward the Fethullah Gulen movement. Although both countries have pledged to refrain from providing weapons to the P.K.K. and other Kurdish groups, the agreement does not mean that Finland and Sweden will stop their support of the P.K.K., which is affiliated with the Syrian Kurdish militia. Ultimately, it means that NATO will support the Kurdish groups, and Russia will be unable to counteract the threat that a pro-Kurdish force is posing to its NATO allies.
The Nordics’ participation in the alliance’s new strategic concept is crucial. In addition to addressing the EU-Turkey rift, the summit will also discuss Russia’s war in the Ukraine, the status of Kurdish groups in Turkey, and the role of the US in the region. The United States will be an important ally for NATO in the coming decades, but its relationship with Turkey remains icy. In addition, the United States has a chilly relationship with Erdogan and the US, which has been compounded by concerns about human rights.
The United States’ top official said the United States and Europe should maintain a united NATO. Sweden and Finland have 830-mile-long borders with Russia and have a modern army. Sweden, meanwhile, controls the entrance to the Baltic Sea and can protect vulnerable Eastern European nations from Russian aggression. President Biden called Erdogan on Tuesday to resolve the issue, and urged him to use the moment he had created on the eve of the NATO summit.
Commitment to support Turkey in fight against terrorism
In accordance with NATO documents and domestic legislation, Finland and Sweden have committed to support Turkey in its fight against terrorism. They also pledged to cooperate closely to prevent the activities of the PKK and its affiliated, inspired, or associated groups and networks. Finland and Sweden also committed to investigating the recruitment activities of terrorist organizations. These statements show the Nordic countries’ deep solidarity with Turkey. Finland and Sweden also pledged to prevent the financing and recruitment activities of the PKK and all terrorist organizations.
In the memorandum, the Nordic countries committed to strengthen their cooperation with Turkey’s effort to combat terrorism. They also pledged to refrain from financing the PKK, the armed branch of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party that has waged an insurgency against Turkey for four decades. Finland and Sweden have also committed to adopt new regulations on arms exports reflecting their status as NATO members. In addition, Turkey and Sweden will establish a permanent joint mechanism comprised of experts from the interior, justice, and foreign affairs ministries. Both countries will invite other countries to participate in the joint mechanism, too.
In addition, Turkey’s response to terrorism has been far from subdued. The country has carried out two military operations in northern Syria, Operation Euphrates Shield and Operation Olive Branch. While Operation Euphrates Shield was initially aimed at fighting ISIS, it turned out to be a conflict against the YPG. In Afrin, Turkey directly targeted the PKK and the YPG.
In the aftermath of the failed coup in Syria, Turkey has taken a step away from the Western camp and has strengthened its ties with Russia. While the U.S. won’t push for Kurdish autonomy in Syria, Turkey doesn’t want to create a federal state. The country’s former president, Turgut Ozal, backed the no-fly zone in northern Iraq.
Impact of enlargement on strategic gaps in Baltic Sea region
There is a large gulf between the European Union and the Russian Federation regarding the role of Russia in the Baltic Sea region, but enlargement of NATO will likely narrow that gap. While enlargement will increase NATO’s power, the cost will likely be lower than the alliance’s initial estimates. In any case, the EU will continue to be the largest security organization in the world. It will also strengthen its relationship with Russia, which has begun to accept a limited role in the region. In addition, enlargement of NATO will also increase its ability to intervene in disputes involving border and ethnic conflicts.
It is worth noting that the Russians have historically viewed the expansion of NATO as a repudiation of their country. As such, their leaders were suspicious that enlargement would exclude them, and would strategically divide Europe. However, this has not tempered the Russians’ attitude towards NATO enlargement. In 1993, a US ambassador to Russia, James Collins, warned that the enlargement of NATO would “exclude Russia and strategically divide Europe.”
The EU’s European Strategy for the Baltic Sea Region, presented in June 2009, is a case in point. The EU’s first macro-regional strategy, the Baltic Sea region should serve as an example to other regions in Europe. A common European security strategy is vital to ensure the safety of a region. In addition to strengthening the EU’s role in the Baltic Sea region, enlargement will also help the European Union’s membership in the Baltic Sea.
The Russian president acquiesced to NATO’s enlargement near St. Petersburg, signalling a strategic shift toward the West. Conservative Washington Post columnist Charles Krauthammer said that the US and Russian cooperation was at its highest level since 1945. This was another signal that Russia was preparing for enlargement of NATO. Although it was not the last word on Russian-US relations, the NATO expansion of the alliance has made Russia and its allies more cooperative and united.
The expansion of NATO has both positive and negative consequences for Russia. While the enlargement of NATO has contributed to the security of Eastern Europe and checked a resurgent Russia, the expansion of NATO is not the sole solution to address Russia’s growing influence. Besides, enlargement of NATO is necessary for NATO to continue to perform its mission. There was a confluence of developments that led to Russia’s transformation into an adversary.
