Is there a risk that the Russian invasion will escalate to nuclear war? This article examines Russia’s nuclear deterrence doctrine, Putin’s willingness to escalate to nuclear war, and conventional superiority versus the United States. Then, I look at possible triggers for a nuclear attack. It will be interesting to see if any of these factors lead to nuclear war.
Russia’s nuclear deterrence doctrine
The Russian military doctrine calls for use of nuclear weapons in conventional conflict to avoid further escalation and end the war on conditions acceptable to the Russian Federation and its allies. Western analysts have referred to this doctrine as “escalate to de-escalate,” but Russian military experts disagree. What is certain is that the Russians will not hesitate to use nuclear weapons if circumstances demand it.
The 2020 document on Russia’s nuclear deterrence doctrine confirms that the primary purpose of their nuclear forces is deterrence, not offensive war. The Russian army has been sending signals to withdraw from western Ukraine and concentrate on the eastern Ukrainian regions, such as Luhansk and Donbas. Senior Russian figures have asserted that they reserve the right to use nuclear weapons if circumstances warrant.
However, there are many other considerations that must be kept in mind if NATO and other international powers decide to intervene in Ukraine. In particular, the Kremlin’s stance is aimed at intimidating Western countries, and Putin is actively exploiting these fears to discourage Western support. But an intentional or accidental use of nuclear weapons is unlikely as long as NATO and the Ukrainian regime do not intervene in the conflict. While there is no real threat of a nuclear exchange, the presence of nuclear weapons remains a significant risk.
Given the recent events, the Russian military is not yet fully ready to respond to any foreseeable military scenario. Yet, the Russian defense minister said Putin on Feb. 28 that nuclear command posts have been strengthened and personnel assigned to them to keep the West at bay. In the event of a nuclear war, Putin will use the ICBMs to scare the west.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has undermined the credibility of both sides, which is crucial to any arms control talks. Despite the fact that US-Russian talks have been suspended since early March, limited arms control measures could be added to the end-of-war negotiations. But more far-reaching actions are unlikely in the long run. Moreover, the prolonged war and the implementation of effective sanctions will weaken the regenerative capacity of Russia.
Putin’s willingness to escalate to nuclear war
It is hard to understand why Putin would want to escalate to nuclear war in the midst of a failed peace process in the Ukraine. He cites a number of reasons, such as the desire to stop the flow of support for the Ukrainian government, openings for sanctions relief, and the desire to rally the disaffected Russian population. But a few obvious considerations suggest that the escalation to nuclear war is the best way to keep Putin in check, and prevent further escalation.
For one thing, escalation is dangerous, and it will only leave Russia in worse shape and at risk of global disaster. If we intervene, Putin could lose everything, including his life and regime. In the end, it is unlikely that Putin will want nuclear war, and it would be a much better outcome if we can keep it limited. The more likely outcome is that the Europeans and the West will force Putin to back down and negotiate a settlement.
While the current hostilities and civilian deaths are unacceptable, the use of nuclear weapons would be a necessary last resort. However, if Putin believes that his regime is at risk, then the stakes are historically high. It would take just a few minutes for a Russian submarine to launch a nuclear warhead. The consequences of this would be catastrophic for both sides. But, there is another possibility.
The threats of escalation are a warning that the Western powers should avoid direct intervention in the conflict. In the meantime, the sanctions are already damaging the Russian economy and could be worsened by a Western energy embargo. In theory, NATO states could decide on the outcome of the conflict through conventional means, but they have resisted this option despite the tangible pressure.
If the Western nations stay away from direct military engagement with Russia, the chance of nuclear war is low. But, as Putin’s frustration grows, the risk of direct military engagement increases. The use of nuclear weapons could lead to a global outcast. Aside from its destructive nature, a nuclear war could lead to devastating consequences on many different countries, including the United States, U.K., and France.
Russia’s conventional superiority in relation to the United States
One of the most serious security concerns facing the U.S. today is the growing presence of Russia’s conventional superiority in relation to the United States. The specter of a nuclear conflict over the Russian and U.S. nuclear arsenals looms over the relationship, as both countries have modernized their nuclear “triad” and bolstered their air and missile defense capabilities. Although Russia’s conventional forces are not as impressive as those of the United States, it excels in electronic warfare, air defense, and submarines.
In a conventional fight, the U.S. military would absolutely clobber Russia. This is because modern wars are not toe-to-toe conventional battles. One side’s superiority is largely due to geography. The U.S. has ten aircraft carriers, a wide technological edge, and a superior ability to project power around the globe. Russia’s conventional superiority in relation to the United States is a very real concern, and it must be addressed in the future.
Despite Russia’s apparent conventional inferiority in relation to the United States, nuclear options are still relevant in escalation management. Nuclear use conveys a strong message to opponents and signals that Russia is willing to take a risk in large-scale conflict. Therefore, it is important for Russia to use nuclear weapons to counteract conventional aggression. It would also be useful in deterring regional conflicts.
While Russia’s client states are small, they add little power and influence to the country. Furthermore, Russia is surrounded by wary and hostile countries. China has penetrated Moscow’s “sphere of privileged interests” in Central Asia. In addition, the former Soviet countries in Central Asia are heavily dependent on Chinese trade, investment, and infrastructure. These factors, however, are important to determining the fate of these states in the long run.
The nuclear and conventional balance of forces are important for understanding the military options of an adversary. In the event of a nuclear conflict, Russia may use nuclear deterrence to shield itself from an offensive conventional war. However, this strategy could lead to further destabilisation in Europe and the global security order. It is also important to remember that conventional superiority isn’t necessarily superior. By strengthening conventional capabilities, Russia could overcome its conventional inferiority in relation to the United States and reduce its dependence on nuclear weapons.
Possible triggers of a nuclear attack
A nuclear attack is an option that would preserve Washington’s ability to communicate with its nuclear forces and open the lines of communication with Moscow. If the United States attacked Russia, Moscow would say that the majority of the American nuclear arsenal is destroyed, but cities and infrastructure are still intact. The Russian leadership would warn against retaliation, citing that retaliation would kill millions more people and destroy the U.S. as a whole.
Russia is very close to nuclear weapons, and the fallout from a nuclear war would have global consequences. But it is also possible that nuclear war could cross international boundaries. Dr. Williams suggests that the only reason Russia might not use nuclear weapons is because of China. Despite this risk, Putin has shown himself to be a risky, dangerous and aggressive leader. This has made him a target of critics and skeptics alike.
The Russian government has 2,000 nuclear weapons in the country, some of which can be attached to artillery shells and depth charges. Moreover, some of these weapons can also be attached to torpedoes and other weapons that can be deployed on land. Washington has downplayed the prospect of a Russian nuclear deployment, but this does not mean that they are not at all unlikely.
Even if Ukraine’s government does not agree with the Russian invasion, a nuclear strike could force it to submit and agree to terms that are unfavorable to the United States. To further complicate matters, Russia may engineer a nuclear “accident” at one of its reactors to force Ukraine to submit. Chernobyl has since been shut down, but large amounts of radioactive material remain. Such a scenario would likely spark widespread international condemnation and a global response.
A third possibility is that the situation escalates out of control, resulting in the use of nuclear weapons. If NATO were to attack Russia with nuclear weapons, both countries would face existential costs. In a scenario where a NATO no-fly zone and Ukrainian-Polish border are violated, a nuclear attack could lead to massive escalation. If the Russian invasion of Ukraine is not resolved, NATO might intervene to protect its allies.
