In an effort to get NATO to respond to Russian threats of nuclear weapons, a Russian lawmaker raised the possibility of attacking the Baltic country of Lithuania. He said this would be a choice if Russia were to conquer all of Ukraine. He also noted that a war in the Baltics would lead to a world war. These concerns have fueled debates in Washington over how to respond to the Russian threats.
Moscow’s nuclear arsenal threatens Finland
NATO and Russia are at odds over whether the country’s nuclear arsenal poses a threat to Finland or not. The two countries have strong economic ties and both maintain nuclear weapons. While NATO is working to resolve the dispute, Russia’s president has warned that joining the alliance would create a more dangerous military situation. Moscow has said that it would only increase its nuclear arsenal if Finland and Sweden join NATO. The Defense Department has said that the expansion of the defensive alliance will promote stability in Europe.
But if Russia were to attack Finland, would Finland be able to respond? Finland joined NATO primarily because of the conflict between the two countries in Ukraine. The referendum on joining NATO took place on February 24, and while 20 percent of Finns were against joining the alliance before the invasion, the majority have since switched their views. CBC Foreign Correspondent Chris Brown reports that Helsinki has built nuclear fallout shelters to protect its citizens. The city’s nuclear bomb shelters can protect as many as 900,000 people.
Despite the recent developments, Finland’s prime minister said her country would make a decision soon on joining NATO. Earlier this month, Finland and Sweden held a joint press conference in Stockholm. Finland’s prime minister, Sanna Marin, told reporters that the country would make a decision on its membership in the alliance in a few weeks. Meanwhile, Lithuanian Prime Minister Arvydas Anusauskas said Russia already had nuclear weapons in the region, but he dismissed the possibility of Moscow using them in that way.
However, the Russian invasion of Ukraine and cyber-attacks on Sweden and Finland have changed the security environment in Helsinki. The country’s decision to join NATO after consulting its parliament has caused a sharp reversal in public opinion on the issue. The decision would double NATO’s land border with Russia. In addition to the United States, Finland would join the NATO alliance if it chooses to do so. With Finland, Sweden would also likely follow suit.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine could trigger conflict with Nato
Critics of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will argue that the country’s new status as a NATO member is “appeasement” to Putin. But that argument ignores the fact that joining NATO would require the U.S. to wage war against Russia. In fact, the U.S. has made clear that it is not at all interested in waging war against Russia. In this article, we look at the risks and the potential repercussions of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
The invasion of Ukraine has exposed the weaknesses of Russia’s military. The 28 European NATO countries spend more than ten times more on their militaries than does Russia. The EU-European alliance currently fields 1.8 million active-duty troops. The region is nearly four times larger than Russia’s. As such, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has caused an unprecedented spike in oil prices. However, there is little hope that this will result in a nuclear war.
In the immediate aftermath of the Russian invasion, NATO may not be ready to fight the Russians. Although the Russian military is significantly weaker than NATO, Russia will likely try to use popular sentiment to weaken the U.S. and NATO’s interests. In addition, the invasion of Ukraine could delay the return of normalcy in the U.S. for months. Moreover, the two-year-long COVID-19 restrictions on Russian airspace have already caused Wall Street to decline 2.5% per day.
While President Putin sought to roll NATO back to the late 1990s, he has failed to fulfill his promise. Finland and Sweden are currently trying to join Nato. This demonstrates that the U.S. is a stronger alliance than it once was. Moreover, NATO’s expansion may trigger more Russian revisionism in the future. It may also cause Ukraine to break off relations with the West.
U.S. policy on arms control
The reset occurred under President Obama and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev. Although Medvedev sought Obama’s respect and complied with the reset effort, he did little to implement democratic reforms. He cut off natural gas supplies to Ukraine, remained hostile to U.S. missile defenses, and vetoed UN action against the Assad regime.
NATO and Russia should reiterate their commitment to defense and deterrence, and they should make clear that they’re willing to deploy nuclear weapons in the event of a conflagration. Such a conflict would be disastrous for everyone, and not just for Russia and the U.S. A nuclear war would be catastrophic for everyone.
The competition between the United States and Russia has existed since the end of World War II. U.S.-led world order clashed with longstanding Russian ambitions. The two countries have developed a more cordial relationship over time, but they’ve remained at odds. The Putin regime is no exception to this trend. While the United States must remain vigilant in its pursuit of arms control and nuclear deterrence, avoiding unilateral concessions is a good starting point.
As a European power, the United States needs to be deeply engaged in Europe. While the Russian challenge to NATO isn’t as large as during the Cold War, the United States remains indispensable in Europe. With the recent actions of Russia against Ukraine, the European Allies have tried to keep U.S. forces strategically engaged on the continent. While the threat from Russia is not as grave as it once was, most western European states remain worried about Russian aggression in their western periphery. If none of the European states joined NATO, the situation would be far worse.
The New START agreement achieved very little to reset the world, and Russia exploited it to build nuclear weapons that were not contained under the treaty. Both countries have also built nuclear-tipped hypersonic glide vehicles and are developing new weapons and capabilities that are unconfined by the treaty. Clearly, it will take considerable investment and effort to manage the competition between Russia and Nato.
Russian response to medvedev’s comments
The US, Canada, and European Union agreed to block “selected” Russian banks from using SWIFT, a global financial system. This move has raised new questions about the stability of the world without the U.S. military. The United States has already suspended Russian banks’ access to SWIFT and has threatened to reimpose sanctions against Moscow’s financial operations. Its retaliation on Western sanctions has been swift and aggressive.
Following the announcement that Finland would be joining NATO, tensions between the two countries are likely to escalate. Finland’s decision to join the alliance would double Russia’s land border with NATO. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s government is retaking several towns on the Russian border. The British Ministry of Defence said that Russian forces in Kharkiv were vulnerable to a counterattack. It is a very dangerous time for both sides.
