Experts warn that Europe’s early heatwaves are a warning sign for future extreme heat. The UK experienced its hottest day of the year on Friday, with temperatures reaching 30C in the early afternoon. As the world continues to warm as a result of human greenhouse gas emissions, heat waves have become more intense and more frequent. Europe is already seeing 10 degrees warmer temperatures than usual this time of year in parts of Spain and France.
Germany’s hottest day of the year
On June 18, 2022, Germany will experience its hottest day of the year so far. The weather forecasters say it will be a scorcher, so be sure to pack an A/C, a Hawaii shirt and a thick layer of sunscreen. It’s expected to hit 32 degrees C – or 89.6 degrees Fahrenheit – in the eastern part of the country. West Germany will have temperatures around 36 degrees C.
The DWD says the temperatures will stay high for the next few days. Some regions in the west and east will reach highs of around 35 degrees. In the east, temperatures will remain moderate until Wednesday evening. By the end of the week, temperatures will have moderated but still remain high. By the end of the weekend, temperatures will dip slightly, with the risk of thunderstorms and showers. This weather pattern is expected to last for the rest of the year, and will be less extreme than last year.
Germany has been experiencing very hot weather lately. The temperature in Coschen, a town near the Polish border, hit 38.6 degrees on two separate days. It may reach 40 degrees this year, too. Warm air from Africa is causing the unusually high temperatures to hit Germany in June. The heat wave is expected to last until the end of the week, but the DWD warns that it’s unlikely that any new records will be broken in the next few days.
With climate change, short heat waves are becoming more common in Germany. The hottest day of the year is usually around July and August. It’s important to check the local forecast as a heatwave could lead to the end of the summer season. The average temperature in May in Berlin is 18.5 degC. While the hottest day of the year may occur in a small city, you should know that Germany has cold weather too.
Effects of spring anomalies on carbon fluxes
While the summer carbon balance of the European continent has decreased, the effect of spring-summer phenology anomalies is still unclear. The generalized enhancement of spring growth in central and western Europe might have partially offset the summer’s carbon losses. The mismatch between the DGVMs for the respective seasons hints at legacy effects. In particular, we estimate that the DRH event occurred before the summer drought in North America.
We estimate the carbon fluxes of five European regions using the DGVM, the FLUXCOM, and the NEPanom models. The DGVMs and the FLUXCOM models are generally in good agreement, but the spatial patterns of the NBP anomalies are not. The DGVMs and the FLUXCOM models show high correlation in estimating NEPanom but have a large difference in the sign of the anomalies. Furthermore, the DGVMs and the MMEM have moderate agreement in terms of spatial distribution of flux anomalies.
The NEE model reproduces ecosystem variables, including drought. Its total anomaly of over 20 TgC is compared with the independently estimated GPP anomaly. This shows that the summer drought may not have a significant impact on the carbon cycle. The increased NEE, however, may partially compensate for the loss of ecosystem productivity. Moreover, the siB4 model replicates the changes in ecosystem variables in drought-affected regions.
Despite the large-scale warming trend in the European spring and autumn phenology, we found no clear trend in the spring and autumn carbon fluxes. In addition, there was a lack of widespread trend in EOS or SOS. This finding has implications for understanding climate-carbon feedbacks and responses. The results are presented in Supplementary Note 2.
Despite the fact that the net effect of droughts is limited, there is also evidence that climate extremes have a compensating effect on the carbon cycle. In the northern hemisphere extratropics, for example, the warmer springs offset the drier summers. The net effect of droughts is also highly important in Europe’s carbon balance. These two factors combined may allow us to better predict future changes in the carbon cycle.
Impacts of summer anomalies on ecosystems
In a recent special report on climate change, scientists documented the effects of summer warming without precipitation. Summer warming without precipitation shifted western central Eurasian boreal forests into a warmer, drier regime. This transition was accelerated in 2015 and 2016, and has continued. The result is that boreal ecosystems aren’t likely to adjust to climate change in a slow, gradual way.
The climate is variable for all humans, but we are used to seasonal cycles. Neither summer nor winter are alike, and we can adjust to these changes by modifying our lifestyles. Year-to-year variation in climate is responsible for variations in fuel prices, crop yields, road maintenance budgets, and wildfire hazards. The North Atlantic Oscillation is the most significant interannual oscillation in the climate system.
The combined impact of summer and COVID-19 will cause a double-whammy for millions of people in 2020. As the economic slowdown continued, the effects of climate change drivers accelerated, and the pandemic did not have the desired effect of reducing global warming. The World Meteorological Organization’s State of the Global Climate 2020 report outlines some of the most significant indicators of the climate system, including greenhouse gas concentrations, warming of land and ocean temperatures, sea level rise, melting glaciers, and ice loss. The report also highlights the impacts of climate change on socio-economic development and land ecosystems.
State-of-the-art global models underestimate impacts from climate extremes
The observed mortality increase from climate extremes is much less than the estimated mortality. However, the model estimates should not be interpreted as predictions because the observed mortality is a function of human adaptation to extreme events. For example, in the 2006 European heatwave, there were fewer deaths than in the 2003 EHWD, probably because the health system was better prepared for the heat. The difference in mortality rates is not only due to human adaptation, but also a difference in the climatological range of models.
Earlier assessments have relied on global process-based climate models to assess impacts of climate change in Europe. However, these models have not been tested over a broad spatial scale or in a multi-sectoral scenario. The underlying issue is that climate models are not able to properly capture impacts from climate extremes, particularly the drought and snowmelt. Furthermore, the aforementioned shortcomings may affect the impact assessments of other climate events.
In comparison to a regional climate model, state-of-the-art climate models generally underestimate the impact of climate extremes on European cities and economies. However, in several countries, simulated anomalies are close to observed temperatures. The largest increases in temperatures occur in Northern and Central Europe, while the British Isles experience the least impact from climate extremes. Moreover, the simulated temperature increases are underestimated in countries with relatively high power generation.
The performance of global climate models in Europe differs across regions and lead times. In West Africa, for example, the ECMWF model outperforms the other two models. This is because ECMWF’s CC is up to 0.8, whereas the UK-Met model underestimates the same rainfall in Southern Africa. This study suggests that future climate models have the potential to significantly underestimate impacts from climate extremes in Europe.
In contrast, the global vegetation models do not reproduce the observed negative anomaly for Western Europe and are not reliable in terms of crop yields. GPPs and crop models do not reproduce the observed heat-related excess mortality in Italy. However, the models reproduce the observed anomalies in other parts of Europe better. The overall results are robust to changing climate forcing data sets, but the yield loss in Italy is underestimated.
