Europe firmly supports Ukraine’s EU candidate bid despite concerns over Russia’s intentions in the undeclared “hybrid war” in Ukraine. But there are concerns about Russia’s disregard for international humanitarian law and possible implications for Ukraine’s EU candidate bid. Let’s take a closer look at the reasons for Europe’s support. And what are the chances that Ukraine will gain membership in the EU?
Europe’s support for Ukraine’s EU candidate bid
The European Union’s support for Ukraine’s EU candidate bidding raises many questions, including whether it’s the right way to proceed. The European Union’s current institutional structure makes governance difficult, and an enlargement to more countries could lead to the emergence of lowest common denominator politics and institutional paralysis. But the EU must be willing to consider new modes of cooperation with non-members, including Ukraine.
European policymakers must show that they are fully committed to Ukraine’s EU candidate bid. Ukraine is fighting for equality, rights, and freedom in Europe. We should also support NATO’s values and make clear that we will stand with the Ukraine on this path. Ukraine is a worthy candidate for EU membership. Let us support Ukraine’s EU candidate bid and strengthen our partnership with NATO. If the European Union’s decision-makers can show their support for Ukraine’s EU candidate bid, we will see a more united Europe.
Europe must also recognize that Russia’s aggression against Ukraine is part of a Kremlin-led assault on EU enlargement. Ultimately, EU enlargement is about containing Moscow’s imperial lust for proxies and fostering stability in the region. In other words, the EU must maintain its door open to Ukraine as a candidate. In this way, Ukraine will be able to join the EU, and we must continue to support her bid for membership.
While Ukraine needs European political and economic support to get closer to EU membership, its path to the bloc will take patience and audacity. European countries must take bold decisions that send a clear and firm message to Kyiv and keep the long-term view in mind. The EU’s decision to accept Ukraine as a candidate should be based on the fact that it will require many challenging reforms on both sides.
Concerns over Russia’s intentions in the undeclared “hybrid war” in Ukraine
Since early 2014, Russian propaganda has aimed to mobilize pro-Ukrainian demonstrators and suppress their protests. But their attempts have largely failed, with pro-Putin sentiment weak in Eastern-Southern Ukraine, and pro-Russian support even weaker in Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhya. In all regions, pro-Ukrainian demonstrators outnumbered pro-Russian ones.
Western observers are mainly concerned about the Russian military presence in the region and the influence of Russian regular army forces on Ukrainian affairs. This war has many definitions, with some calling it a civil war while others call it an interstate conflict. Whatever the definition, there is no doubt that Russia is part of the conflict and could play an important role in its resolution.
Although Russian military operations in Ukraine have been delayed by Ukrainian strategies, it is not entirely clear what the Russian strategy is. In fact, the Russian military objective is to prevent NATO from using Ukraine as a staging ground for threats against Russia. As a result, intensive fighting continues to liberate the remaining areas. This strategy has not resulted in a military solution and a humanitarian one, but it has certainly created a situation in which the Russians will continue to play a significant role.
While a prolonged war will probably not lead to peace for Ukraine, it could result in greater territorial loss, an unending proxy battle, and a Russian threat that extends for years to come. While the Russians’ military might have superior numbers, a strong determination to fight will ultimately win the war. It may not be a victory or a defeat, but it will be worth a long-term investment in Ukraine’s future.
Fears over Russia’s disregard for international humanitarian law
Concerns over Russia’s disregard for international humanitarian laws in Ukraine’s EU candidate bid have been raised after two British citizens were sentenced to death in the eastern Donetsk region. The Donetsk People’s Republic is internationally recognised as part of Ukraine, but the ruling in the Donetsk court last week is shocking, and two British nationals have been sentenced to death.
In order to qualify as an EU candidate, Ukraine must submit its application to the European Union’s council. The EU needs a unanimous vote from the council to move forward. The EU then seeks the opinion of the European Commission before voting on the application. If the council approves it, the European Parliament then votes to accept the country as a member state. While it’s not clear whether or not the Europeans will grant Ukraine candidate status, the process will likely take several years.
The recent war in Ukraine has altered the EU’s approach to enlargement. It’s now recognized as a geopolitical tool and requires a strategic approach. The rapid application of Ukraine to join the EU has rekindled aspirations in many other countries. The Western Balkans, which has been stuck in a political rut for years, expect progress in their bids to join the EU. The EU must implement ambitious reforms to keep up with this renewed expectation.
Concerns about the situation in the east of the country are growing over the recent use of Russian troops in eastern Ukraine. Pro-Moscow separatists have been executing dozens of people, including children, as well as a number of civilians. In Mariupol, the government has been unable to count the number of civilians killed, and many are living in appalling conditions.
Despite recent reports that Russia is involved in a Russian invasion of eastern Ukraine, the Kremlin is still standing in the face of this growing crisis. The CIA and the United States believe that Russia is behind the hacking attacks. The CIA and other international organizations have backed the Ukraine’s EU candidate bid, and have accused the Russian military of being involved in a hacking campaign against the country.
Chances of success of Ukraine’s EU candidate bid
Despite the president’s optimism, the EU has yet to show its readiness for Ukraine’s candidacy. The EU needs to increase its military capabilities and deepen its ties with NATO. It will not dismiss Kyiv’s application for EU membership without fully weighing the different viewpoints. President Charles Michel and Commission President von der Leyen recently noted that there are significant differences among member states, so they should take this into account.
While the odds of Ukraine becoming a candidate are still uncertain, diplomats have said that it would be a “half-step” if the Commission rejects the application without imposing conditions. In other words, the EU27 is promising to deepen relations with Ukraine until the Commission issues its opinion on the country’s application. In the meantime, the country’s representatives have been touring European capitals to make their case for candidate status without conditions.
The EU must empower the forces of change in the candidate countries to ensure that the process leads to the desired outcomes. In addition to promoting reform, the EU must ensure that the reform process focuses on democratic consolidation, institutional integrity, and structural changes conducive to growth and development. Furthermore, the EU is unlikely to have a common vision of its neighborhood, as the member states will prioritize their own foreign policies and the EU External Action Service will focus on the lowest common denominator.
With the current political situation, enlargement is becoming a geopolitical process. The recent invasion of Ukraine by Russian forces changed the face of the game. EU candidacy status would give Ukraine a new strategic roadmap for its enlargement and anchor the Associated Trio into its geopolitical orbit. Such a move would be a major geopolitical victory over Russia. So, despite the recent political setbacks, there are many reasons why Ukraine should become an EU candidate.
